"The allocation of the 'Keys to the White House' suggests that President Biden currently maintains a slight advantage in a hypothetical 2024 face-off against former President Donald Trump.
Allan Lichtman, an election forecaster renowned for his accurate predictions in nearly every presidential race since 1984, devised a formula utilized to forecast upcoming presidential elections, often proving to be precise.
Lichtman's 'Keys to the White House' comprises 13 true or false questions believed to offer strong indications of the eventual victor on the fall ballot. Each question is posed regarding the two competing nominees; a 'true' answer earns them a 'key,' while a 'false' answer awards the point to their rival.
To date, Biden possesses five of the 'keys,' while Trump managed to secure approximately three, as disclosed by Lichtman to MarketWatch. This leaves five keys still available, presenting enough opportunity for the former president to gain an advantage before November.
According to American University, where Lichtman instructs, the 'keys' include: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.
Biden is automatically granted one point due to his incumbency, constituting key number 3.
While Robert F. Kennedy Jr. met the requirements to appear on the Utah presidential election ballot, Biden earned another 'key' for not facing any significant third-party or independent primary challenge.
The Democrat was also awarded 'keys' for achieving "real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms," along with implementing policy changes during his presidency.
On the other hand, Trump secured key number one, which is given to the political party whose majority holds in the House of Representatives - awarded to the GOP.
Portraying Biden as lacking charisma, Lichtman attributed the 12th key to Trump, potentially earning another point if Biden fails to achieve "a major success in foreign or military affairs."
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